7 Southern States At ‘Tipping Point,’ Per Harvard’s COVID-19 Tracking Site

7 Southern States At ‘Tipping Point,’ Per Harvard’s COVID-19 Tracking Site

With the coronavirus rampaging across the southern half of the United States, the number of states “at a tipping point” for COVID-19 infections has jumped from four to seven in just five days.

Americans who live in 22 states — nearly half of the country — should not be traveling right now, according to the Harvard Global Health Institute’s risk-assessment map. The color-coded map provides a simple way for Americans to assess that risk. Each state has a rating of green, yellow, orange or red, based upon the number of new daily cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 people over a seven-day rolling average.

States colored red or orange are over the threshold for allowing non-essential travel, according to Harvard’s researchers.

Consider how the infection rates have increased in the red-zone states in the five days following July 4.

Based on data from site’s last update on Thursday, July 9, seven states — Arizona, Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina, Texas, Georgia and Alabama — are now colored red, which means they have 25 or more new positive COVID-19 cases every day per 100,000 people. Those states are “at a tipping point” and should be under stay-at-home orders, according to the Harvard researchers.

Five days earlier, on July 4, only four states — Arizona, Florida, South Carolina and Louisiana — had crossed the threshold into the red-zone states. In that short period, not only did more states join the red zone with 25 or more new daily positive COVID-19 cases, but the original four states are in worse shape than they were last weekend.

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Florida’s rate climbed 16% — from 36.6 to 42.3 — in just five days, while Louisiana’s rate jumped a whopping 29% — from 25.0 to 32.2 — over the same period. Arizona’s infection rate now hovers just under 50 new daily cases per 100,000 people.

An additional 15 states are colored orange, meaning they have 10 or more new daily positive COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people over a seven-day rolling average. These states are experiencing an “accelerated spread” of COVID-19, with “stay-at-home orders and/or test and trace programs advised,” according to the HGHI researchers.

States labeled yellow on the map are not in the clear, according to the HGHI. Yellow means there is between one and nine new cases of COVID-19 each day per 100,000 people, which still signifies community spread.

According to CDC guidelines, you should reconsider traveling if COVID-19 is spreading where you live. “Even if you don’t have symptoms, you can spread COVID-19 to others while traveling,” says the CDC’s travel page.


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